I am still disappointed that we are not getting the one fight that I really want to see (GSP/Diaz) but we should get that fight later this year. This card is really not that strong and I really have only two plays that I really like and no leans. Let’s get to it!
Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit
I have watched both of these guys fights for years so I am really familiar with their styles. The only fighter who has really evolved, in my opinion, is Nick Diaz. Condit has remained, essentially, the same fighter – which is not a bad thing as I think very highly of Condit. Condit has a lot of heart which has helped him get to where he is today. However, Condit has never fought a fighter like Nick Diaz.
There is no fighter with more motivation than Nick Diaz right now. Also consider how much GSP has been talking about him lately and that will just fuel his fire even more which is all bad news for Condit. This will be another fight where Diaz will dominate a fighter that is not in his league. Condit deserves to be in this fight but Diaz is an elite fighter. If, and I mean IF, Condit were to beat Diaz then I’ll give the man his due props. This fight will be one-sided in Diaz’s favor. I am expecting Diaz to finish Condit with his boxing skills – though a submission is entirely likely as well. Thankfully we will get Diaz vs GSP later this year and I’ll take a stand right here and state that I feel that Nick Diaz beats GSP right now.
My Official Prediction: Nick Diaz to Win
Josh Koscheck vs Mike Pierce
I know a lot of people are high on Mike Pierce but I can’t see him winning this fight. Koscheck is too big and too strong for Pierce. I do expect that Pierce will keep this fight competitive but Koscheck will be too much for him. Koscheck has fought far superior opposition and he is still riding his KO win over the antique Hughes. This is a big step up in competition for Pierce and you can be sure that he knows it.
Koscheck will come out of the gate as the aggressor and Pierce will be on the retreat. I will not be surprised if there is a stoppage in fight as Koscheck overwhelms Pierce.
My Official Prediction: Josh Koscheck to Win
Hope you guys have a great Superbowl day and you win all your bets! Good luck!
I apologize for not posting my opinions last week on the Friday UFC FX card. Personally, I only made two small bets on Pat Barry and Josh Neer. I was rooting for Guillard to win his fight and I thought he was doing really well until he got careless and paid for it – props to Jim Miller! This card on FX is definitely more intriguing and I have a some picks and maybe a lean or two for you guys!
Rashad Evans (-190) vs Phil Davis (+155)
I know a lot of you guys think Evans is going to run over Davis – but I am not one of them. However, I am only putting a small bet on this fight because of the intangibles (Davis first big fight, Evans in a must win situation to get Jon Jones), but still betting Phil Davis. Vegas Runner and I talked quite a bit at length about this fight yesterday and told him my thoughts on why Phil Davis wins this fight but VR still likes Evans. 
This is really Evans fight to lose. ALL of the pressure is on Evans to perform AND look good in this fight to setup the grudge match with Jon Jones. There is NO pressure on Phil Davis here other than this is the big fight that he WANTED. Evans wants this to be a striking match where I do give him the edge but I am not seeing a striking match here. This is going to be a wrestling match and, please believe, that Davis IS the better wrestler. Davis does have a servicable striking game and he is taller and has a longer reach than Evans in this fight. Davis also has the superior submission game here and couple that with his superior wrestling skills and we will have a ground fight.
A lot of the recent trash talk between these two guys has been on their wrestling abilities. Evans needs to keep this fight standing so we may see stall tactics from Evans just as he did in his fight against Jackson by pinning him against the cage (lay and pray tactics).
We will see Davis take Evans down as well but he will look to submit him. I truly believe this is the game plan for Davis. Evans will only be able to fend off Davis for so long and let’s remember this is a FIVE round fight.
My Official Prediction: Phil Davis to Win
Demian Maia (+120) vs Chris Weidman (-150)
This line puzzles me because Weidman has not fought anybody AND he’s taking this fight on short notice! I do agree that Weidman has a LOT of potential but seriously guys, this is a MAJOR step up in competition for Weidman. We are getting Maia as a dog in this fight. Seriously, what more can you ask for in this one?
Maia has fought the far better competition AND has the superior submission game in this fight. Weidman will be a good fighter in the future, but this is a bad fight for him, especially on such short notice. If Weidman had more time to prepare then we may be able to make a better case for him but clearly this is Maia all day, every day.
My Official Predicion: Demian Maia to Win
Mike Russow (-165) vs John-Olav Einemo (+135)
I am looking forward to seeing these two heavyweights go at it. This should be an entertaining fight while it lasts. These two guys are anomalies in the heavyweight division as they are both submission “type” fighters. Russow is the better wrestler and I give him an edge in striking but everything else is on Einemo.
I am fully expecting Russow to try and box with Einemo. Einemo knows this and will get Russow to the ground with ease and submit him. Russow is fighting in his hometown of Chicago so there will be major nerves with him. This is a great spot for Einemo to get a win by taking Russow down and submitting him with ease.
My Official Prediction: John-Olav Einemo to Win
I only have one small lean and I do mean small lean. I like Michael Johnson to win over Shane Roller. I think this fight turns into a striking match as Johnson will be able to stuff Roller’s take down attempts forcing Roller to be a striker. Again this is a very slight lean. Lastly, if you guys want to lay the chalk – take Sonnen. This should be an easy fight for Sonnen. He will take Bisping down at will and finish him. I did not include this in my official picks as the chalk does not make it that attractive to me.
I should have named this my underdog fight plays huh? There really is no reason other than the angles that I am seeing in these fights. Good luck with your plays this weekend. I will be back with more picks soon!!
I was 1-1 in my last UFC predictions with a loss with Lesnar and dominating win by Nate Diaz. I will say this, had any of us known that Lesnar was contemplating retirement – you could have been damn sure that I would have went with Overeem (just as everyone else would have done as well). Once a fighter starts talking about retirement – there goes their focus in training and the will to win in a tough fight. At any rate, lets get to the UFC 142 predictions and I also have a couple leans as well at the bottom.
Jose Aldo (-260) vs Chad Mendes (+200)
As much as I like Mendes and his skills, this is a completely bad time for a title fight for him. He not only has to fight in Brazil, he has to fight a highly motivated Jose Aldo. Aldo not only has a slight height advantage but he has a huge (for featherweight division) reach advantage of four inches.
Lets put all of this aside and really look at the skill sets here. Mendes is a pure wrestler, period. He does have a little boxing ability – but he is not going to win a strike fest with anyone anytime soon. Mendes does have very good cardio and trains to go the distance (in my own opinion). On the other hand, Aldo is an exceptional striker with both his hands and his feet. Aldo is also a very good jiu-jitsu practioner (he’s brazilian after all – they come out of the womb with a brown belt) and his cardio is also very good. Where does Mendes win this fight? Mendes cannot outstrike Aldo and he would be foolish to try and take him down.
This will be a showcase fight for Aldo.
Mendes will try to take Aldo down because that is his strength but Aldo will likely keep this fight standing. Look for Aldo to immediately start the leg kicks from round one and continue the leg punishment. Aldo wins this by stoppage in round four when Mendes has trouble with his movement because of the battering of his legs. After this fight there really is nothing left for Aldo. I suspect that he will attempt to move up in weight to 155 as that is where all the BIG money fights are and I feel Aldo would be a natural at that weight.
My Official Prediction: Jose Aldo to Win (Likely stoppage in round 4)
Vitor Belfort (-115) vs Anthony Johnson (-115)
UPDATE: Johnson failed to make weight. Belfort has agreed to fight anyways. This COULD be an advantage for Johnson BUT in my mind it means that Johnson has either overtrained or did not train enough for this fight.
I truly feel that this is going to be a good fight and possibly be the fight of the night. Anyone that thinks Johnson does not have a STRONG chance here is kidding themselves. This is not an easy fight for Belfort by any means. I personally feel that this is the proper weight for Johnson as he has been killing himself to try and make the welterweight limit for the past 3-4 fights. In addition, Johnson is very underrated skill wise.
On paper, every advantage skill wise is clearly in Belfort’s favor as he is the better overall skilled fighter. Johnson is a well rounded fighter and has a good wrestling base and striking skills. I think the biggest advantage here is that I think Johnson has the better chin AND is stronger than Belfort. Johnson is two inches taller and will have a four inch reach advantage. I also feel that Johnson will be supremely motivated as he has been wanting and asking for a big name fight for a long time – his wish has been granted. Belfort will also be motivated for this fight because it is in Brazil BUT the nerves will be with Belfort as this is the first time he will be fighting a significant fight in his homeland.
I see this fight starting out with both guys circling each other with Johnson establishing his jab and Belfort looking tight and unsure of himself. Round two is when we will see Belfort taking more chances with Johnson being more effective with countering. I feel that Johnson’s strategy here is to get this fight late in the rounds and look for Belfort to gas out. Belfort has not had to go the distance since 2007. I like Johnson to win by decision here but if it does go late in the fight, I would not be surprised one bit if Johnson gets a stoppage over a gassed Belfort.
My Official Prediction: Anthony Johnson to Win (SCRATCHED due to Johnson failing to make weight)
I do have a couple leans here as well if you guys are interested in a potential parlay. I have lean to Sam Stout to win over Thiago Tavares. Tavares thinks he is a striker now after his recent fights and will be rudely interrupted with the power of Stout.
I have a strong lean to Edson Barboza to win over Terry Etim. I really like this Barboza kid – he is going to be a really good fighter in the years to come. Be sure to check him out if you have the chance!
Good luck to you guys and I hope you cash some tickets!! I’ll be back with more opinions later on this month with the really good card with UFC on Fox.
Well guys, here we are again! Another weekend and another great Saturday night for fight fans. I went 2-1 last week and I am hoping to have another good fight night to help you guys make some informed decisions and hopefully cash some tickets. That’s what this is all about right?
I only made a single unit bet on my Lamont Peterson pick and it paid off nicely. Unfortunately we don’t have as good of odds here for this Saturday night’s fights, but I still feel we are in another position to cash in. I do stress that you guys be careful with your bets – only bet what you can afford to lose! I am only making single unit bets on these plays myself. Lets get started!
Gilbert Melendez vs Jorge Masvidal
I am just as excited about this fight as I am about Ward vs Froch. This is going to be a good fight – for Melendez. I like Masvidal and I think he has a lot of potential, but he is up against a guy who is superior to him. Melendez belongs in the UFC and should be fighting the elite lightweights. Don’t get me wrong, Masvidal earned his shot at Melendez, but honestly who has he really beat besides KJ Noons? I don’t even consider Noons a top 10 lightweight (maybe top 20).
Melendez is faster, stronger, and more skilled than Masvidal is at this point. The problem Masvidal has at this point is that he has never fought anyone as fast as Melendez and there is no way train for that. Melendez also moves so uniquely that he always puts his opponents in bad positions. I think Masvidal does have good striking skills and he has a good chin but his motivation is no where near what the motivation for Melendez is right now.
You can be sure that we will be seeing a pissed off and highly motivated Gilbert Melendez. When the UFC said that Strikeforce will remain its own entity and no other fighters will come to the UFC – this was a face slap to Melendez as he wants the big fights and all the big fights are in the UFC. After Melendez defeats Masvidal – who else is there for him to fight in Strikeforce? I honestly feel that Melendez is the best lightweight in the world and I think Melendez beats Edgar right now.
My Official Prediction: Gilbert Melendez to Win
I know I said this last week, but what a great month for fight fans! Now we have Khan vs Peterson and UFC 140 this weekend!! I gave out some predictions on last weekends fights where I went 3-0. I had Mares, Cotto, and Bisping all winning in their fights. I also had Povetkin winning by KO late in the fight which he did.
I had Helenius to win by KO but he won via decision though I feel that he should not have won that fight at all. This was a complete home town robbery as I scored the fight with Chisora winning. It should be noted that Helenius broke his right hand in the first round and this could explain his poor performance but any rate Chisora was the victor in my mind. Thankfully these guys will rematch next year.
Now, on to this weekends fights!! Starting with boxing…
Amir Khan vs Lamont Peterson
I do like Khan and definitely see him as being one of the stars that boxing needs once Pacquiao and Mayweather are gone. He has an exciting style, charisma, and he loves to talk about himself (lol). Khan has good power, speed, and footwork. However, this fight gives me pause though because Khan is finally facing a fighter that is just as good a boxer as he is (in my opinion) and has good speed and power.
I know that everybody and their mother is on Amir Khan in this fight and I completely understand the logic, but I am going to be going with Lamont Peterson in this fight. Now before you call me crazy let’s dig into this one.
Khan has been struggling to make the 140 lbs limit which is why this will (probably) be his last fight at 140 lbs. I feel that Khan’s natural weight is built for 147 which is where he plans to go after this fight. Peterson has good speed, power, and a better chin than Khan. Peterson also has a longer reach (74″) than Khan (72″) which plays a major role in jabbing. Most importantly, this fight is in Peterson’s home town of Washington D.C. and there is no greater motivation for a fighter than to fight in front of your home town fans (first major title fight in 18 years for D.C.). Peterson can fight inside or outside whereas I don’t think Khan can fight very well on the inside. I suspect that this is what Peterson will do – apply pressure to Khan and get inside. Once this fight gets into the later rounds (round 9+), I think we will start to see the stamina problems on Khan due to the weight drain of cutting to 140 lbs.
I think that with all the talk Khan makes about fighting Mayweather that he is looking past Peterson to some extent. Khan has to continue to look impressive to get a fight with big name fighters which could open him up for Peterson to take advantage. I also think that the weight drain is hurting his stamina. I see this fight going all 12 rounds!
My Official Prediction: Lamont Peterson to Win (most likely by split decision).
Let’s move on to UFC 140!!
Jon Jones vs Lyota Machida
I know that quite a few people think that Machida is a live dog in this fight. I’m not one of them.
This should be a realitively easy fight for Jones. Jones is taller, faster, and stronger than Machida. Machida’s only chance of winning this fight is to get Jones to the ground and try to work a submission on him. Unfortunately for Machida, I just cannot see this happening. This fight will end up being striking match and Jones’ strength and power will be too much. Plus Jones has a 10″ reach ADVANTAGE over Machida – that is a massive edge. Let’s face it, Jon Jones is a heavyweight that can cut down to 205.
My Official Prediction: Jon Jones to Win (likely by KO in round 3 as Machida tires out from the pressure)
Frank Mir vs Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira
I am not really shocked by the odds in this fight (Mir -260+), but I do not think they should be that high. I feel that Nogueira is a live dog in this fight. Big Nog destroyed Brendan Schaub back in Brazil which was a shocker to many people. These guys are fairly evenly matched in size and reach. I do feel that Mir has the edge here simply because Mir has the better stand up skills, wrestling, and conditioning. I anticipate this fight will go to the ground which then will boil down to conditioning. I think Mir has the better gas tank here but not by much. Big Nog has not went three rounds since 2009 whereas Mir went three rounds back in May. Both guys have good submissions, both guys have similar striking abilities (Mir slightly better), and both guys have good chins. For me, this is a match about who wants it more and who has the better gas tank for this fight which I believe it is Mir in both categories.
My Official Prediction: Frank Mir to Win
Tito Ortiz vs Antonio “Lil Nog” Nogueira
This is the fight that really intrigues me. Both of these guys are aging fighters (Tito at 36, Lil Nog at 35) and both are at the tail end of their careers (just as Big Nog is as well). I firmly believe that this fight will NOT go to the ground as Lil Nog likes to strike as does Ortiz. In addition, Ortiz has said in several interviews that he will do his best to keep this fight standing.
I feel that we are getting a healthy Ortiz at this point. I am not putting much stock into Ortiz’s loss against Evans in August as he took that fight on extremely short notice and we cannot fault a guy for that as he did not have as much time to prepare for Evans as he would have liked. Lil Nog’s last fight was in March in a decision loss to Phil Davis.
I feel that Ortiz has the better striking skills here AND most importantly the power. If Lil Nog can get this fight to the ground then he should be able to pull out a decision victory here with controlling the fight (aka lay and pray). I do think this fight ends up as a striking match which benefits Ortiz.
My Official Prediction: Tito Ortiz to Win
That wraps up my predictions for this weekends fights! I will be back next week with my predictions for Andre Ward and carl Froch. Good luck guys and cash tickets!!
I am really happy to be a fight fan this weekend! There are good fights in boxing and MMA this weekend. So lets get to it!
Abner Mares vs Joseph Agbeko 2
This is a continuation of the hugely controversial decision win that Mares won when they first fought earlier this year. Agbeko is a good boxer and I do think that the “low blow expedition” by Mares in their first fight took some of the bite out of Agbeko’s punches. HOWEVER, there is a big difference here in this fight. Mares is the more skilled fighter of the two and Mares has more adaptability to the situation in the ring than Agbeko. Mares will know what to expect now from Agbeko so I do expect that Mares will out box Agbeko without the low blows. Agbeko will be more aggressive here right from the bell so Mares should be able to counter and win the early rounds. Mares stamina problems in their first fight won’t happen in this fight as he has paid more attention to his cardio for this one! This will be a fantastic fight and its free!
My Official Prediction: Abner Mares by Decision
Miguel Cotto vs Antonio Margarito 2
I saw the first fight on PPV and it was incredible! Both fighters gave as good as they got but Cotto seemed to tire in the late rounds and there will always be a question about whether Margarito’s wraps were loaded or not. My opinion on that is if you got caught once – you were doing it before as well. YOu just don’t decide to use loaded wraps as a one-time event. At any rate, that was then – this is now and this should be a different fight with a different result.
Cotto has been looking very impressive in his last fights whereas Margarito has been off for over a year AND had to have surgery to repair the damage he received from Pacquiao. I personally feel that Margarito is still a capable fighter and a threat BUT he is damaged goods at this point. We have to consider that he will have a LOT of rust and his timing will be off. In my opinion, this is a “money grab” for Margarito. The only person here who really has something to prove is Cotto who is coming off a TKO win back in March. I do believe this will be a competitive fight. Margarito is a guy who continually comes forward and throws punches – that’s his style. Cotto should be able to counter and be first due to the rust of Margarito. I only see a decision in this fight due to both guys having great chins.
My Official Prediction: Miguel Cotto by Decision
Michael Bisping vs Jason Miller
I did not watch any of this seasons TUF shows so I cannot even comment on the guys who are fighting on Saturday. But I have seen both Bisping and Miller fight many times. SportsInteraction.com has Bisping as a -213 favorite and Miller as +150 dog. I think both of these guys are pretty evenly matched but the one big factor here is that Bisping has been fighting at the UFC stage longer and has been in with much better opposition than Miller. The other big factor here is that Miller has not fought since September 2010 so there will be a little rust there.
Bisping is a better wrestler than Miller which will benefit Bisping as he will be able to stuff Miller’s take down attempts preventing Miller from using his superior jiu-jitsu skills. Bisping is also the better boxer of the two as well. Bisping needs to keep this fight standing and I suspect he will be able to do just that. If this fight does go to the ground, Miller will dominate as his strength is on the ground.
My Official Prediction: Bisping by Decision
This is a big weekend for us fight fans and I hope you guys are going to enjoy this as much as I am. If you get EPIX on your cable/satellite TV you can catch two rising heavyweight stars in Robert Helenius and Alexander Povetkin. They are both on the same card and will be fighting moderate opposition. I expect Robert Helenius to win by KO in the middle rounds and Alexander Povetkin to win by KO in the late rounds. Good luck in all your bets this weekend guys!!
I have been doing pretty well in my recent MMA picks and hope to keep up my ways this weekend with UFC 139. I hope everyone was able to get money with Dos Santos last week! For all of you Velasquez fans – don’t worry he’ll be back in prime shape likely against the loser of the Lesnar/Overeem fight but thats next year. Let’s get down to my predictions for the top three fights:
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs Dan Henderson
I don’t know where all this hype for Henderson is coming from in this fight – but thankfully this could help us with the betting odds. I am on Shogun in this fight! I just cannot see how Henderson wins this fight aside from a lucky punch. We should be getting a healthy and primed Shogun in this fight. Henderson has looked good recently but aside from beating an overrated (in my opinion) Emelianenko, who has he really beat recently?
Does Henderson really want to take this fight to the ground against Rua, a black-belt jiu-jitsu specialist? I seriously doubt that we will see this fight go to the ground (though I will not be surprised if Shogun takes Henderson down). This leaves us with a standup fight, which I think Rua is better at with his Muay Thai skillset. Henderson tends to fight small and his reach is only 71″ whereas Rua fights tall with a reach of 76″ which is advantage Muay Thai. No need to over think this one as the only intangible here is that Henderson is 41 and Rua is 29 – I wonder how much gas is left in Hendo’s tank.
At any rate, look for a dominating performance from Shogun Rua with a unanimous decision.
My Prediction: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua to Win (decision)
Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le
I don’t know about you guys but I am excited about this fight! Two old dogs going at it with everything on the line. I honestly feel that this is Cung Le’s fight to lose. Silva has to be down in confidence after his KO loss to Leben and it seems that the Hall of Famers chin is not what it used to be at this point. Silva was a fantastic fighter in which I feel that the wear and tear of his career is catching up with him. Silva has been in WARS whereas Le has not. I also feel that Silva is likely taking Le lightly here because Le does not have much of a MMA record. This is a benefit to Le here!
I think that Silva will attempt to take down Le and will get stuffed. Cung Le should be able to capitalize on Silva’s aggression early in the fight and land some heavy shots that WILL hurt Silva. I think this will be the end of Wanderlei Silva’s impressive MMA career as he will get KO’d by Cung Le late in the first round or in the second round. The gas tank for Silva is empty at this point PLUS this fight is in Le’s hometown of San Jose – this is a huge factor for Le.
My Prediction: Cung Le to Win (Likely by KO late in 1st round or 2nd round)
Brian Bowles vs Uriah Faber
I personally think this is going to be the fight of the night here guys. Both of these guys are salivating at the chance to get back in the ring with Dominick Cruz. I think that we will see a resurgence of Faber in this fight. Faber fought a very close fight against Cruz and I honestly felt it was a draw. Bowles is a strong guy with a wrestling background just like Faber – on paper these guys are pretty evenly matched. I think the difference maker here is the ring intelligence of Faber. Faber is faster than Bowles, has better foot work, and better stand-up skills. I think Faber will keep this fight standing and will use his speed and footwork to out box Bowles.
My Prediction: Uriah Faber to Win (decision most likely – but I will not be surprised if submission/ko occurs)
I do like Kampmann over Story but that is a very slight lean there, as I think that is a pick ‘em fight. Good luck to you guys this weekend and get some money! I will be back soon with more predictions on upcoming boxing and MMA fights!
Another UFC is upon us and unfortunately the true main event was plagued with an injury. We will not get to see GSP vs Condit – which I think would have been a very good scrap. I still think tonights main event is going to be a good fight too!!
Nick Diaz over BJ Penn: I just don’t think BJ fits at welterweight especially when you consider that BJ is 5’9 (with shoes on). I am even more shocked that Diaz was the dog in this fight. Diaz wins this fight by fighting tall – and he knows how to do this very well. Do not be surprised if Diaz stops Penn late in the 2nd or early 3rd round as I think Penn gasses out.
Cheick Kongo over Matt Mitrione: Mitrione keeps talking about his “good ground-and-pound” game but I’m not sold. Mitrione will likely “try” to take Kongo down but Kongo is good enough to avoid the take down attempts and will keep this fight standing. Mitrione is not that hard to hit and Kongo is a superior striker. I like Kongo by stoppage here.
These are my two strongest plays tonight!
I also have some leans on a couple undercard fights as well:
Brandon Vera over Elliot Marshall: I think Vera gets back in the win column here with a strong performance.
Donald Cerrone over Dennis Siver: You cannot question Siver’s heart one bit – he never stops coming forward. The problem is that Siver has no defense. Look for Cerrone to pick him apart. I like Cerrone by stoppage here.
Good luck!!
This will be one of those events where you remember where you were at when Fedor lost for the first time. I will admit that I was somewhat shocked at this but not as much as some people will inevitably be by this result. I am more stunned by the mental mistakes that Fedor made, mistakes that he normally does not make.
On to the fight:
The fight opened with some jockeying from both fighters – in other words, a typical opening round in a Fedor fight. Fedor threw, what I thought, was a five punch combination. Fedor’s punches did seem to be a bit more wider than normal and honestly NONE of Fedor’s punches landed clean on Fabricio Werdum. It looked like Werdum actually fell on to his back as more of a defensive position rather than actually being hurt by any punch.
Fedor jumped into Werdum’s guard and begun throwing hammer fist punches and some good straight punches but ultimately fell into Werdum’s full guard. Fedor managed to get out of a very tight armbar attempt by Werdum but fell right into a Werdum’s triangle. Fedor’s began to thrash around to try and get out but Werdum had it cinched in and Fedor’s head began to turn red and ultimately tapped out as there was no way out.
Analysis:
I personally felt that Fedor made a mental mistake against Werdum. Werdum is a BJJ guy first and foremost. What it seemed like to me is that when Fedor saw Werdum go down from his opening punch combination, Fedor thought that Werdum was hurt and tried to go in for the kill. Fedor should have backed off and re-thought the situation and allowed Werdum to stand back up as Werdum was not hurt at all. Perhaps this was Werdum’s strategy? To fall down on your back when Fedor throws his combinations and hope he falls into Werdum’s guard.
I think people will read more into this fight than they need to. I still do not think that Werdum beats Fedor in a rematch. Werdum’s win was good but he took advantage of an unusually over-aggressive Fedor. I do not think that Werdum beats Overeem due to Overeem’s power and quickness.
If Fedor fights Werdum again – what do you think the result will be? If Werdum fights Overeem, do you see Werdum beating Overeem?
-Dustin Garrido
UFC 107 is upon us this Saturday and it is a fight that I have been waiting to see for quite some time now. But I do think if Diego Sanchez had fought BJ Penn earlier in his career he would have been thoroughly dominated by the “Prodigy.” However, after Sanchez had his last loss something did seem to change with him. In my opinion, he seemed to transform into the “full-time fighter” which are the guys who are training year-round and always working on their game just like Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva (when their not injured).
We have always known that Diego Sanchez has a really good ground game and he has added, what appears to be, a really good stand-up game as well. But the factor that gives Sanchez his ability is his heart and mental toughness – even if he is a little “out there.” But most MMA fighters are probably a little “out there” (e.g. Forrest Griffin). Even with all of that – I just cannot see Diego Sanchez beating BJ Penn. Do not forget that many of the major MMA fight writers thought Kenny Florian would beat BJ Penn and we witnessed Penn beat Florian at his own game. I suspect that Diego Sanchez will try to stand-up and box BJ Penn which is likely a bad combination because Penn has heavier hands than Sanchez…
Now on to the predictions!!
Diego Sanchez v. B.J. Penn: Even though I really like how much Sanchez has improved his all around game, I just cannot see him beating BJ Penn especially after what Penn did to Kenny Florian. I like BJ Penn KO3
Cheick Kongo v. Frank Mir: This is kind of a toss up for me to predict a winner because both guys looked bad in their last fights but considering each guys opponent that is a bit unfair to base them on that. However, Mir is the one who changed trainers after his loss to Lesnar and that is not always a good thing. Mir definitely has the superior ground game but I think Kongo has the better stand-up. I’m going to go with Kongo by unanimous decision on this one.
Mike Pierce v. Jon Fitch: No question about this one here. Jon Fitch unanimous decision. Fitch is a good fighter with an even greater heart. Unfortunately, a big heart will not allow him to beat GSP.
Clay Guida v. Kenny Florian: This is going to be a great fight. Clay Guida has never been in a boring fight and he is going to keep coming at you no matter what. However I think this kind of aggression will benefit Kenny Florian.Even thought Florian was submitted in his fight against Penn – he did not look “bad” in that fight, he was just up against a fighter who had all the answers. This is my upset pick on this one. I think Guida pulls this one out on a split decision over Florian.
What do you guys think about my fight predictions?
